Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 223.770550 270.779412 328.512106 405.776063 508.257561 6.421644e+02 8.349405e+02
2025-08-10 166.805131 220.096359 293.728614 406.620189 582.563026 8.600970e+02 1.363244e+03
2025-08-17 132.640131 185.396033 264.395721 397.950806 633.353292 1.066675e+03 2.033688e+03
2025-08-24 110.193713 160.697670 241.031765 387.589836 673.205464 1.274220e+03 2.906229e+03
2025-08-31 94.163595 141.951099 221.693226 376.514046 705.096956 1.484445e+03 4.044738e+03
2025-09-07 88.495409 138.513570 226.700117 411.000277 845.423250 2.049511e+03 7.247416e+03
2025-09-14 80.063753 128.717658 217.978320 415.008061 918.592793 2.503926e+03 1.128169e+04
2025-09-21 74.259757 122.527056 214.599046 429.300642 1026.157203 3.186578e+03 1.942933e+04
2025-09-28 67.780448 114.065868 205.040639 426.511739 1085.483686 3.772162e+03 3.090197e+04
2025-10-05 65.812754 113.804999 212.145849 466.656076 1303.583814 5.414568e+03 7.711195e+04
2025-10-12 63.331845 112.128377 215.841502 499.451630 1523.609328 7.595929e+03 2.219402e+05
2025-10-19 60.519401 109.357305 216.529547 524.378668 1736.850994 1.041466e+04 8.130336e+05
2025-10-26 57.091705 105.063108 213.415194 539.078092 1932.314987 1.403609e+04 5.203532e+06
2025-11-02 53.446683 99.860231 207.262115 542.802334 2086.863218 1.821503e+04 1.368344e+08
2025-11-09 49.493997 93.515647 197.228121 530.812057 2154.799436 2.190686e+04 NaN
2025-11-16 45.876504 87.519573 187.164193 515.933539 2199.159638 2.585174e+04 NaN
2025-11-23 42.623278 82.003598 177.533236 499.957795 2227.954465 3.012060e+04 NaN
2025-11-30 42.197158 82.890347 185.014169 549.983363 2753.666059 5.587953e+04 NaN
2025-12-07 40.195899 79.868523 181.325295 555.830312 2981.209360 7.944338e+04 NaN
2025-12-14 38.833412 78.218302 181.235174 576.727676 3373.122071 1.322621e+05 NaN
2025-12-21 36.844448 74.849063 175.681312 572.643766 3546.784577 1.855345e+05 NaN
2025-12-28 36.679968 75.941064 183.475064 631.725802 4482.918406 5.363743e+05 NaN
2026-01-04 36.147457 76.049216 188.350577 680.449599 5476.733041 1.865261e+06 NaN